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2020/21 OUTRIGHT TIPS

Sep 02, 2020

 

TIP #2

8/1 OUTRIGHT FOUR-FOLD 

5 UNITS

Best Odds: 8.29/1 (William Hill) 

ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI 
Top Goalscorer (German Bundesliga) @ 8/15
 
ATALANTA
Top 4 Finish (Italian Serie A) @ 8/13
 
REAL MADRID 
To Win Outright (Spanish La Liga) @ 4/6
 
TIMO WERNER 
Top Team Goalscorer (Chelsea, England Premier League) @ 5/4 
 

As far as 8/1 picks go. This has to be up there with one of the best I've seen to date. To the average gambler, this might just look like a few short-priced selections but to me, these all look overpriced, and this 8/1 combination carries some serious value. To find out why you can read my brief reasoning for each selection below. I've done my best to make sure it's as short and informative as possible.  

 

ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI - TOP BUNDESLIGA GOALSCORER @ 8/15

Robert Lewandowski is one of the greatest strikers to ever play in the Bundesliga with six Bundesliga titles and an average of one goal per 111 Minutes since his German League debut back in 2010. The instinctive polish striker was the prime candidate to lift the 2020 Ballon d'Or after a remarkable 2019/20 campaign scoring 34 Goals in 31 Bundesliga Appearances, that's 17 more goals than any other Bundesliga player that is set to feature this season. 

Lewandowksi Bundesliga Goals Record (Last 5 Years):
- 2019/20: 34 Goals 
(8 More than 2nd place Timo Werner)
- 2018/19: 22 Goals 
(4 More than 2nd place Paco Alcacer) 
- 2017/18: 29 Goals
(14 More than 2nd place Nils Peterson)
- 2016/17: 30 Goals
(1 Less than 1st place Aubameyang )
- 2015/16: 30 Goals 
(5 More than 2nd Place Aubameyang)
 
Lewandowski is on course to claim the Bundesliga Golden Boot for the 4th Consecutive season and what better opportunity to do so than this upcoming campaign. He's coming off a peak season with a very short break, He will once again be leading the line for Bayern Munich who are the best team in the world right now, and let's be realistic, his only competition will be Erling Haaland.
 
Don't get me wrong, Haaland is a great player who will develop immensely but he has a lot to learn before we can compare him to Lewandowski. If we are comparing the service that these two strikers will receive this season, again I have to favor Lewandowski's Relentless Munich team in comparison to a Dortmund outfit that are destined for a 2nd Place finish. The loss of Hakimi and last season's mentality issues drain all expectations I may have had for this Dortmund squad. I'm expecting Lewandowski to take this season's golden boot comfortably by 6+ Goals.
 

ATALANTA - TOP 4 FINISH (SERIE A) @ 8/13

Gian Piero Gasperini, the Italian manager that has injected success into the little team from Bergamo, Atalanta. Gasperini is known for using a fluid 3-4-3 formation and a spectacular high-risk hyper-offensive possession-based system. His style focuses more on scoring goals, off–the–ball movement, and quick, short passes on the ground, and less focus on long balls and the defensive aspect of the game; with energetic overlapping attacking wing-backs in lieu of wide midfielders, that provide width along the flanks and push up the pitch when going forward.

The Gasperini approach led to Atalanta achieving Champions League football for the first time in the club's history back in 2018/19. Fast forward to the 2019/20 Campaign and they finish the season just 5 points behind Champions Juventus after scoring a colossal 98 Goals in 38 League Games, an average of 2.6 goals per game. Gasperini is often criticized for his lack of defensive structure however Atalanta lost just 6/38 games. That's fewer games lost than the league Champions. 

Atalanta are a club that have finished in the top four three times in the past four seasons. This is no one-hit-wonder. This is a club whose revenues have more than quadrupled in the past four years. A club that did what so few Italian teams have been able to do. They built their own stadium, buying it off the local municipality and reconstructing it whilst exploiting their biggest, historical strength: their youth academy. 

Anybody who watched Atalanta last season will have learned a different way of playing and winning. Yes, they have received a welcome rise in finances but this is due to the courage, passion, and work ethic they have shown on the pitch. Nobody looks forward to playing Atalanta. They are dangerous and if you don't approach them correctly they will punish you, relentlessly. Atalanta have registered Winning score-lines such as 7-0, 7-2, 6-3, 6-2, and 5-0 in 2020 alone.  

Regarding transfer business, Atalanta have managed to retain the core of their squad for the upcoming season. Significant departures include defenders Timothy Castagne and Gianluca Mancini who have both been replaced by capable Loan arrivals Cristian Romero from Juventus and Cristiano Piccini from Valencia. New prospects Mario Pasalic, Aleksey Miranchuck, and Simone Muratore all add even more depth to the center of the midfield. This could be a peak year for Atalanta and it would not surprise me to see them giving the title a real good go. A top 4 finish is a secure bet. 
 
 
REAL MADRID - TO WIN OUTRIGHT (LA LIGA) @ 4/6

Despite Club President Florentino Perez stating that 'Real Madrid will not spend big due to pandemic related financial constraints', the off-season couldn't have gone any better for Los Blancos as they sat back and watched rivals Barcelona demean the services of the great Lionel Messi, leaving their hierarchy in the dirt, and the world's best player forced to play a season at a club where he doesn't want to be. With all things considered it's not looking good for Barcelona including a poor end to the season and now the departure of Suarez, Arthur, and Rakitic. New Manager Ronald Koeman has a lot on his hands to get this team firing again, a big ask. 

As for Real Madrid, they wrapped up the league with ten consecutive wins at the end of the 2019/20 campaign before underperforming away at Manchester City, albeit without skipper Sergio Ramos. It looks like Zinedine Zidane discovered his system last season with noticeable improvements to their defensive capabilities and Madrid's youth now starting to blossom with the likes of Vinicius Jr, Federico Valverde, Eder Militao, and Rodrygo all starting to make an impact. The return of 21-year-old Martin Odegaard will add even more depth to the squad after his successful loan spell with Real Sociedad, another youth prospect that carries the attitude and capacity to hold the rest of La Liga at bay. 

It's hard to include Atletico Madrid as a serious title candidate after a transitional season last term where they struggled to integrate new players. Record signing Joao Felix may impact life at the Wanda Metropolitano but I'm yet to discover significant reasoning to suggest we will see them lifting the trophy come Summer 2021. It doesn't take a genius to work out that there could be stormy times ahead for Barcelona, Messi's relationship with Ronald Koeman is already on the ropes and you'd be very optimistic to believe that this Barca team can match the free-flowing football that we have become so accustomed to at the Camp Nou over the years. Real Madrid are the complete package and what better opportunity to make it back to back titles than this upcoming campaign. I see them taking the title with games to spare once again.

 

TIMO WERNER - TOP TEAM GOALSCORER (CHELSEA, PREMIER LEAGUE) @ 5/4

I couldn't quite believe the odds for this market when I came across it last week. Timo Werner to score the most goals for Chelsea.  As you know from Outright Tip #1 I'm expecting Timo Werner to be right up there for Premier League Top Scorer this season. You can see my reasoning for that further below which explains in detail why I believe he is in for an impressive campaign. 

Timo Werner is Chelsea's Main Striker. His realistic competition for goals within the club will be Tammy Abraham & Kai Havertz. Timo will have priority over Abraham and you'd expect Havertz to take up a Central Attacking Midfield role.

Timo Werner
Shot on Target Percentage: 50.4%
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.64 
 
Tammy Abraham
Shot on Target Percentage: 39.8% 
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.33 
 
Kai Havertz
Shot on Target Percentage: 43.1% 
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.31
 
Timo Werner is coming off a 28 Goal season. His best yet. Maybe the odds are this generous because it's his first season in the Premier League but as I explained below, I'm pretty confident he is going to be at it right from the off. Tammy Abraham is not going to get the same minutes he did last season in this Chelsea team and Kai Havertz is not going to get anywhere near the number of chances that Timo will throughout the campaign. These odds are an absolute steal and will shorten rapidly so don't wait around before backing this play. 
 

TIP #1

Premier League Top Goalscorer: Timo Werner

3 UNITS

Best Odds: 12/1 (William Hill, Betvictor, Betfred)

German Striker Timo Werner Joined Chelsea for a £47.5 million deal from RB Leipzig in June. The 24-year-old is the perfect fit for Frank Lampard's Team and I'm expecting him to reach new heights in a Chelsea squad that will be set up to utilize his full potential and provide the service he needs for a high-scoring campaign. 

The license to play as a Sole Striker

At RB Leipzig Werner Played in a Young, Vibrant footballing side under Julian Nagelsmann. However, despite scoring 28 of Leipzig's 81 goals during the 2019/20 campaign, Werner was never their 'Sole' striker as such. Nagelsmann often opted for a 4-4-2 / 3-3-2-2 formation - Taking advantage of attacking overloads and a high press to win back the ball. This means Werner was almost always playing within a striker pairing and Leipzig's attack overload playing style led to Werner regularly being part of a four, even five-man attack at times. This explains why Leipzig would often outscore the opposition whilst conceding in the process.  

Now, At Chelsea, Frank Lampard Prefers to play a 4-3-3 / 3-4-3 formation and has spent the last season developing a system that exploits a single main striker. If we take a look at his latest 6 Premier League games below this gives us a clear indication of the playing style he is developing at Stamford Bridge and further confirms that he is continuously working towards playing with One main striker, whether that is with a winger either side or attacking midfielders, this is something that he tweaks each game but one thing we can be sure of is his desire to play with a sole striker. A system that brought Frank success under Jose Mourinho. 

 Chelsea's Latest 6 Premier League Formations 
- 4-3-3 vs Sheff Utd
- 4-3-3 vs Norwich
- 3-4-3 vs Man Utd
- 3-4-2-1 vs Liverpool
- 3-4-3 vs Wolves
- 3-4-3 vs Arsenal
(Predominantly 1 Central Striker, a clear pattern throughout the 2019/20 Season)

Werner will take up the role of Tammy Abraham who registered an average of 3.58 shots per 90 minutes for Frank Lampard's Chelsea last season. That's considerably more shots per game than the likes of Vardy (2.58), Kane (2.71) & Aubameyang (2.58), suggesting Timo might just be the perfect fit for a Chelsea system that is crying out for an elite Striker. 

Will he need time to adapt to the Premier League?

Many people believe Werner is going to need 6 months to settle in the premier league after his move from the Bundesliga. However, if we look at Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who made the same transition in January 2018 joining Arsenal from Borussia Dortmund. He went on to score 10 goals in his opening 12 Premier League starts. That's a strong start if you ask me, especially after joining for the latter stages of the season and part of a misfiring Arsenal Squad that was coming to the end of Arsene Wenger's 22-year reign in charge. We shouldn't underestimate the level of top Bundesliga players when they make the move to England.
 
Timo Werner is immensely focused, sharing similarities to a horse with blinkers on. He is going to be jumping into a Chelsea team that is thriving with individual quality and a young manager to go with it. It took him just four minutes to get off the mark as he netted on debut vs Brighton.
 
Timo said in a recent interview ''The Club signed me to score goals, I want to show what I showed in Leipzig and prove in England the way I did in Germany". You could argue he is going to be one of the most motivated strikers in the league with this being his opening premier league season. This and the fact he is going to be indulging in a role that will see him register more shots per game than most premier league strikers gives me great confidence that we will see Timo at the top of the goalscoring charts throughout the 2020/21 Campaign.

How does he compare to current Premier League Strikers?

Timo Werner
Shot on Target Percentage: 50.4% (High)
Shots per 90 Minutes: 3.77 (High)
Shots on Target per 90 minutes: 1.90 (High)
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.64 (High)
 
Sergio Aguero
Shot on Target Percentage: 34.2% (Very Low)
Shots per 90 Minutes: 4.52 (High)
Shots on Target per 90 minutes: 1.55 (High)
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.86 (High)
 
Jamie Vardy
Shot on Target Percentage: 43.7% (Average)
Shots per 90 Minutes: 2.58 (Average)
Shots on Target per 90 minutes: 1.13 (Low)
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.47 (Average)
 
Harry Kane
Shot on Target Percentage: 43.6% (Average)
Shots per 90 Minutes: 2.71 (Average)
Shots on Target per 90 minutes: 1.18 (Low)
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.32 (Low)
 
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Shot on Target Percentage: 44.4% (Average)
Shots per 90 Minutes: 2.58 (Average)
Shots on Target per 90 minutes: 1.15 (Low)
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.41  (Average)
 
Mo Salah
Shot on Target Percentage: 43.1%  (Average)
Shots per 90 Minutes: 4.07 (High)
Shots on Target per 90 minutes: 1.75 (High)
Non-Penalty expected goals per 90 minutes: 0.53  (Average)
 
Conclusion
 
To Conclude, Timo Werner's shot on target percentage obliterates all other premier league strikers and His shots on target per 90 minutes is nearly double that of last season's golden boot winner. Yes, these stats are based on last season where he fought it out at the top of the charts with Robert Lewandowski, registering 28 goals in the Bundesliga but the role he is about to take up at Chelsea caters his playing style to an absolute tee. 
 
He's taking up the new role of a sole central striker in a Chelsea system that has proven to create considerably more chances for Tammy Abraham last season (3.58 Shots-per game) in comparison to the premier league's top strikers. Combine this aspect with Werner's conversion percentages and we have a recipe for goals. 
 
Chelsea have invested to ensure he gets the required service throughout the season. Hakim Ziyech has registered double-digit assists in his last six consecutive full seasons whilst Kai Havertz has now completed his medical after excelling for Leverkusen last year. Havertz will provide that German link alongside Werner which will implement his success both on & off the pitch. This Chelsea system is starting to look strong and Timo Werner will be right at the head of it. 

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