Best Odds: 8.29/1 (William Hill)
As far as 8/1 picks go. This has to be up there with one of the best I've seen to date. To the average gambler, this might just look like a few short-priced selections but to me, these all look overpriced, and this 8/1 combination carries some serious value. To find out why you can read my brief reasoning for each selection below. I've done my best to make sure it's as short and informative as possible.
ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI - TOP BUNDESLIGA GOALSCORER @ 8/15
Robert Lewandowski is one of the greatest strikers to ever play in the Bundesliga with six Bundesliga titles and an average of one goal per 111 Minutes since his German League debut back in 2010. The instinctive polish striker was the prime candidate to lift the 2020 Ballon d'Or after a remarkable 2019/20 campaign scoring 34 Goals in 31 Bundesliga Appearances, that's 17 more goals than any other Bundesliga player that is set to feature this season.
ATALANTA - TOP 4 FINISH (SERIE A) @ 8/13
Gian Piero Gasperini, the Italian manager that has injected success into the little team from Bergamo, Atalanta. Gasperini is known for using a fluid 3-4-3 formation and a spectacular high-risk hyper-offensive possession-based system. His style focuses more on scoring goals, off–the–ball movement, and quick, short passes on the ground, and less focus on long balls and the defensive aspect of the game; with energetic overlapping attacking wing-backs in lieu of wide midfielders, that provide width along the flanks and push up the pitch when going forward.
The Gasperini approach led to Atalanta achieving Champions League football for the first time in the club's history back in 2018/19. Fast forward to the 2019/20 Campaign and they finish the season just 5 points behind Champions Juventus after scoring a colossal 98 Goals in 38 League Games, an average of 2.6 goals per game. Gasperini is often criticized for his lack of defensive structure however Atalanta lost just 6/38 games. That's fewer games lost than the league Champions.
Atalanta are a club that have finished in the top four three times in the past four seasons. This is no one-hit-wonder. This is a club whose revenues have more than quadrupled in the past four years. A club that did what so few Italian teams have been able to do. They built their own stadium, buying it off the local municipality and reconstructing it whilst exploiting their biggest, historical strength: their youth academy.
Anybody who watched Atalanta last season will have learned a different way of playing and winning. Yes, they have received a welcome rise in finances but this is due to the courage, passion, and work ethic they have shown on the pitch. Nobody looks forward to playing Atalanta. They are dangerous and if you don't approach them correctly they will punish you, relentlessly. Atalanta have registered Winning score-lines such as 7-0, 7-2, 6-3, 6-2, and 5-0 in 2020 alone.
Despite Club President Florentino Perez stating that 'Real Madrid will not spend big due to pandemic related financial constraints', the off-season couldn't have gone any better for Los Blancos as they sat back and watched rivals Barcelona demean the services of the great Lionel Messi, leaving their hierarchy in the dirt, and the world's best player forced to play a season at a club where he doesn't want to be. With all things considered it's not looking good for Barcelona including a poor end to the season and now the departure of Suarez, Arthur, and Rakitic. New Manager Ronald Koeman has a lot on his hands to get this team firing again, a big ask.
As for Real Madrid, they wrapped up the league with ten consecutive wins at the end of the 2019/20 campaign before underperforming away at Manchester City, albeit without skipper Sergio Ramos. It looks like Zinedine Zidane discovered his system last season with noticeable improvements to their defensive capabilities and Madrid's youth now starting to blossom with the likes of Vinicius Jr, Federico Valverde, Eder Militao, and Rodrygo all starting to make an impact. The return of 21-year-old Martin Odegaard will add even more depth to the squad after his successful loan spell with Real Sociedad, another youth prospect that carries the attitude and capacity to hold the rest of La Liga at bay.
It's hard to include Atletico Madrid as a serious title candidate after a transitional season last term where they struggled to integrate new players. Record signing Joao Felix may impact life at the Wanda Metropolitano but I'm yet to discover significant reasoning to suggest we will see them lifting the trophy come Summer 2021. It doesn't take a genius to work out that there could be stormy times ahead for Barcelona, Messi's relationship with Ronald Koeman is already on the ropes and you'd be very optimistic to believe that this Barca team can match the free-flowing football that we have become so accustomed to at the Camp Nou over the years. Real Madrid are the complete package and what better opportunity to make it back to back titles than this upcoming campaign. I see them taking the title with games to spare once again.
TIMO WERNER - TOP TEAM GOALSCORER (CHELSEA, PREMIER LEAGUE) @ 5/4
I couldn't quite believe the odds for this market when I came across it last week. Timo Werner to score the most goals for Chelsea. As you know from Outright Tip #1 I'm expecting Timo Werner to be right up there for Premier League Top Scorer this season. You can see my reasoning for that further below which explains in detail why I believe he is in for an impressive campaign.
Timo Werner is Chelsea's Main Striker. His realistic competition for goals within the club will be Tammy Abraham & Kai Havertz. Timo will have priority over Abraham and you'd expect Havertz to take up a Central Attacking Midfield role.
Best Odds: 12/1 (William Hill, Betvictor, Betfred)
German Striker Timo Werner Joined Chelsea for a £47.5 million deal from RB Leipzig in June. The 24-year-old is the perfect fit for Frank Lampard's Team and I'm expecting him to reach new heights in a Chelsea squad that will be set up to utilize his full potential and provide the service he needs for a high-scoring campaign.
The license to play as a Sole Striker
At RB Leipzig Werner Played in a Young, Vibrant footballing side under Julian Nagelsmann. However, despite scoring 28 of Leipzig's 81 goals during the 2019/20 campaign, Werner was never their 'Sole' striker as such. Nagelsmann often opted for a 4-4-2 / 3-3-2-2 formation - Taking advantage of attacking overloads and a high press to win back the ball. This means Werner was almost always playing within a striker pairing and Leipzig's attack overload playing style led to Werner regularly being part of a four, even five-man attack at times. This explains why Leipzig would often outscore the opposition whilst conceding in the process.
Now, At Chelsea, Frank Lampard Prefers to play a 4-3-3 / 3-4-3 formation and has spent the last season developing a system that exploits a single main striker. If we take a look at his latest 6 Premier League games below this gives us a clear indication of the playing style he is developing at Stamford Bridge and further confirms that he is continuously working towards playing with One main striker, whether that is with a winger either side or attacking midfielders, this is something that he tweaks each game but one thing we can be sure of is his desire to play with a sole striker. A system that brought Frank success under Jose Mourinho.
Werner will take up the role of Tammy Abraham who registered an average of 3.58 shots per 90 minutes for Frank Lampard's Chelsea last season. That's considerably more shots per game than the likes of Vardy (2.58), Kane (2.71) & Aubameyang (2.58), suggesting Timo might just be the perfect fit for a Chelsea system that is crying out for an elite Striker.
Will he need time to adapt to the Premier League?
How does he compare to current Premier League Strikers?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
JOIN the Upper 90 Tips Fantasy Premier League for the upcoming season:
Take advantage of a 10-Day-Free Trial followed by 50% off your future Membership by Joining Upper 90 Tips today!