Game Of The Day (2 Free Tips)

SASSUOLO V SPEZIA

ITALY SERIE A - 14:00 KO

Saturday’s GOTD pick is a mid-afternoon Serie A clash between Europa League chasing hosts, Sassuolo, and their visitors for the afternoon, relegation-threatened Spezia at the Mapei Stadium.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side go into this afternoons game looking to bounce back from a wretched recent run of form, winless in their last 4 games (2 draws and 2 losses), and with just 3 wins in their last 10 in the league, il Neroverdi (Green and Black) have swiftly dropped away from Champions League contention and currently sit 8th with 31 points — 6 points behind Lazio and Napoli in 5th and 6th respectively.

Vincenzo Italiano’s Spezia side aren’t faring much better in the short term, and have fared much worse over the course of the season so far. After a couple of encouraging wins against Napoli and Sampdoria, Le Aquilloti (Little Eagles) have since gone 3 without a win. Looking further back shows us that those results were also the only victories in Spezia’s last 10 league games, and half of the 4 wins they’ve managed all season. 4 of those 4 wins have come away however — at Udinese, Benevento and Napoli — so the Serie A new-boys will travel to Sassuolo with some confidence.

Statistical Analysis

On the back of a woeful run of form which has seen defeats to Juventus, Lazio, and even a round-of-16 Coppa Italia defeat to Serie B side SPAL — as well as draws against Parma and Cagliari — Sassuolo will be desperate to re-inject some energy into their game, in a season that has been defined by their inconsistencies.

Matches at the Mapei Stadium are averaging 2.77 goals per game (1.44 for and 1.33 against) from an xG per game of 2.65, and Sassuolo have scored in all but 2 of their home league games whilst keeping the same number of clean sheets — of which both came in a 0–0 draw with Udinese. 6 of their 9 home games have ended with both teams on the scoreboard, with just 56% of the matches producing over 2.5 goals.

The fact is, De Zerbi’s side just aren’t finding their groove so far going forward. Whereas last season, they were averaging 1.82 goals per 90 from an xG/90 of 1.47, this season they are averaging just 1.60 goals per 90 from an xG/90 of 1.37. They are also below last season’s underlying metrics like shots on target per 90 (4.20 compared to 5.05 last season), shot creating actions per 90 (21.15 compared to 23.50) and key passes per 90 (9.45 compared to 10.6). On the face of it these are fairly small decreases, but a decrease across the board is proving costly for De Zerbi’s side.

It is all relative, however, and Italiano’s Spezia side are a reminder to Sassuolo as to how far they have come since their promotion from Serie B in 2013 — and subsequent seasons either battling relegation or finishing comfortably mid-table.

The Serie A new-boys (who are experiencing their first ever season in the Italian top-flight) are producing displays typical of a side learning the ropes of elite level football for the first time: short — for the most part — on quality, whilst producing plenty of that typically Italian passion and desire.

Spezia’s away days produce an average of 3.4 goals per game (1.6 for and 1.8 against) from an xG per game of 3.13, and they have managed to find the net in all but 2 of their games on their travels, only keeping 3 clean sheets however.

For the Aquilloti, unfortunately, the downfall comes from a lack of quality at both ends of the pitch. The struggle to find goals is compounded by the tendency to concede them, and Spezia’s xGdiff/90 (the difference between xG/90 and xGA/90) is joint 3rd worst in the league — level with Parma on -0.70, which essentially means xG predicts them to concede, on average 0.70 goals more than they score in a game.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — SASSUOLO TO WIN @ 1.80 [4/5]: 4 Unit Stake

For a home side who are comfortably above their afternoons visitors in the league, Sassuolo’s odds to win are surprisingly high. Their rough run has clearly given the bookies some doubts, but their season has been inconsistent throughout, and their lows are just as inconsistent as their highs. The two sides have only played each other twice, and Il Neroverdi have won both times. Expect them to make it 3 from 3.

Higher Risk Tip — UNDER 2.5 MATCH GOALS @ 2.30 [13/10]: 2 Unit Stake

Sassuolo’s underlying metrics compared to last season have been cause for concern for De Zerbi, and suggest his side won’t be putting the likes of Spezia to the sword as they have done in previous seasons. Expect them to proceed with caution against Spezia, and eventually nick a tight victory and return to winning ways.