Game Of The Day (2 Free Tips)

ROMA V VERONA

ITALY SERIE A - 19:45 KO

Sunday’s GOTD pick take us the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, as Roma host Hellas Verona in a Sunday afternoon Serie A clash.

The hosts go into this afternoon’s game in decent form, having lost just once in their last 6 league games — a run which has seen them pick up 13 points from a possible 18. Juventus’ win against Sampdoria last night means Roma have dropped into the last of the Champions League places in 4th, just a point ahead of Atalanta. Remarkably, Paulo Fonseca’s side are unbeaten at the Stadio Olimpico all season, with all 4 of their defeats coming on their travels. In fact, from the 10 games Roma have played at home this season, they have won 7, yielding an incredible 24 points from a 30 point maximum.

Roma’s opponents, Hellas Verona, have seen an incredible rollercoaster through recent years, and are in their 2nd consecutive season in Serie A — also just their 3rd season in the top-flight since their relegation in 2002, and subsequent drop in Serie C1 for the first time in 64 years. Verona currently sit in 9th, just 4 points off the final Europa League spot, with 8 wins, 6 draws and 30 points from 19 games. With just 1 loss in their last 5 matches, Ivan Juric’s side are not one to be swept aside, especially as the reverse fixture was awarded 3–0 to Verona by default, after it was found that Roma midfielder Amadou Diawara was listed as an under-22 player, despite turning 23 in July.

Statistical Analysis

Fonseca’s Roma side, as previously mentioned, go into this afternoon’s game unbeaten at the Stadio Olimpico. Questions have been raised, however, about the calibre of clubs they have played at home — the highest ranked club they have beaten being 10th placed Sampdoria, whilst drawing to Inter, Juve and Sassuolo.

Matches at the capital’s ground have averaged 3.7 goals per game (2.5 for and 1.2 against) from an xG per game of 3.58. Roma have scored in all but 1 of their home games this season, whilst keeping a clean sheet on 4 occasions.

The numbers are somewhat inflated, however, from the perceived easier run of games for I Giallorossi, producing an average xG/90 of 2.94 against the sides in 10th and below, compared to just 1.67 against the sides close to themselves.

In Juric’s Verona side, Roma will be coming up against the joint best defence in the league, a side who have conceded just 18 goals in their 19 games — averaging 0.95 goals conceded per game.

On their travels, Hellas Verona’s games are averaging just 2.0 goals per game (1.11 for and 0.89 against) from an xG of 2.77. Verona’s xGA/90 0f 1.27 indicates they are riding their luck somewhat, but this is mainly down to the performances of former Leeds Utd goalkeeper Marco Silvestri, who has the lowest goals against per 90 (0.96) for any goalkeeper who has played over 1,500 mins, despite his side recording an average xGA/90 of 1.38 — only 9th best in the league.

Verona have scored in all but 2 of their away games this season, but have never scored more than twice. Furthermore, they have also kept just 2 clean sheets on their travels, but have only conceded more than once on one occasion — a 2–2 draw with AC Milan in November.

Tips

Medium Risk Tip — UNDER 11 TOTAL CORNERS @ 1.73 [8/11]: Whilst Verona’s away-days are averaging just above at 11.11 per game, Romas average of just 9.2 at the Stadio Olimpico brings the average of the two sides down to just 10.1. In addition, this game is likely to be tighter than the average one, with Verona looking to keep it tight at the back against a superior side — they conceded just 6 corners to Juventus, 4 to Atalanta and 1 to Sassuolo.

Higher Risk Tip — DRAW & UNDER 2.5 MATCH GOALS @ 5.50 [9/2]: As already mentioned, the underlying metrics, particularly from Verona’s aspect point to a game that won’t be remembered as a thriller. All of their games against superior opposition (barring the anomalous 2–2 draw with Milan) have lead to fairly mundane results — not to mention the reverse that ended with a 0–0 result before Verona were awarded the win. Furthermore, Roma’s apparent inability to beat any side at home pushing for a European place again pushes us towards a stalemate.