The Season So Far - Part 3 (The Outsider)

So we’re into the final part of our Premier League review. I’m sure you’re all as desperate as I am for top-tier domestic football to return. Today’s football consists once again of Nations League fixtures, with England making the trip to the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels at 7.45pm, to play Belgium in what seems like the millionth recent fixture between the two.

I myself will be avoiding the football for the most part this Sunday. I’m not going to bore you again with my distain for international breaks, and will be watching the Masters instead.

The Premier League, however, is still at the forefront of everyone’s minds this weekend. and without actual games to discuss, the debate gravitates to the talking points of the season so far.

On Friday we had a look into the glut of goals that we have had the pleasure of witnessing during the first 8 weeks. Yesterday we took a slightly more cynical look at the technology seemingly taking the goals away.

Today, we take a look ahead towards the rest of the 2020/2021 season, and ask the question: Is this the season of the outsider?

The Outsider

For the last 3 seasons, we have had the pleasure of watching two of the best teams in Europe — and in the history of the Premier League — fight week-in week-out to be at the top of the table. Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City and Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool have been lightyears ahead of the rest of the league, pulling away from the rest of the pack and earning record points tallies in the process.

In 2017/2018 Guardiola’s City became the first team in the history of the Premier League to reach 100 points in a single season, after a last second Gabriel Jesus goal gave them a 1–0 win at Southampton on the final day of the season. They won the Premier League with 5 games to spare, and broke countless records in the process, including: most points (100), most wins (32), most away wins (16), most goals (106), most consecutive league wins (18), highest goal difference (+79), fewest minutes behind in matches (153 minutes) and biggest winning points margin (19).

In 2018/2019, City became only the 3rd club to retain the Premier League — joining Manchester United and Chelsea — after beating Brighton 4–1 on the final day of the season. That victory earned City 98 points, and was their 14th win in a row. Liverpool finished 2nd that season with a runner-up record of 97 points, having won their final 9 games and pushed City right to the end. The Reds were also only beaten once that season, by City.

And in 2019/2020, Liverpool went one better and took the crown after a 30 year wait for a league title. They recorded 99 points last season and ended up finishing 18 points ahead of City, who in turn finished 15 points ahead of 3rd placed Manchester United.

3 years of dominance between the blue of City and the red of Liverpool, the tiki-taka of Guardiola and the rock-n-roll pressing of Klopp, who were favourites to be ahead of the pack once again this season. But this season seems different. It seems inexplicably weird. It’s notoriously difficult to maintain the intensity of a title challenge for 3 or 4 seasons, and both City and Liverpool look way below the level we’ve been used to. It seems like a great opportunity for a new challenger, and there are a few to consider.

Leicester City

Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester City currently sit top of the table after the first 8 games, with 6 wins and 18 points. But more impressive for Rodgers and Leicester, is the performances that have earned those wins. You could argue that the current Leicester squad is better than the squad of 2015/2016, when they won the league in miraculous fashion, at 5000/1. And the evergreen Jamie Vardy is proving just as deadly now as he did 5 seasons ago.

the 33-year old and his team are currently outperforming their expected goals (xG) so far this season, with 18 goals from an xG of 13.7, whilst conceding 9 goals from an expected goals against (xGA) of 8.0. What’s really interesting is that they are 3rd from bottom in terms of average shots per 90 minutes, with just 8.12 — between Sheffield United and Crystal Palace, and miles behind Liverpool’s 16.00. They do, however have the highest percentage of shots on target (47.7%), and are hitting the back of the net every 3.8 shots — the most efficient in the league.

The efficiency with which Leicester are winning games is what will give Rodgers so much hope. In addition to their outperformance of xG, there is a marked difference in the Foxes acceptance to give their opposition plenty of the ball, with possession having dropped to 50.5% compared to 57.6% last season. Furthermore, the Foxes are allowing 14.4 passes per defensive action (PPDA), compared to just 9.6 last season — essentially meaning that they are allowing an average of 14.4 passes before making a successful press or tackle — and going from top in the PPDA table to 13th.

The question, however, is sustainability. The start to the season somewhat mirrors last season, where Leicester were brilliant from the offset, but capitulated towards the end of the season and ended up losing what was considered a solid Champions League spot. The xG levelled out last season as Vardy and co. managed 67 goals from an xG of 61.6, therefore, maintaining such efficiency in front of goal will be a brilliant achievement, albeit unlikely.

Leicester do look set, however, to mount a serious push for the title. There’s a level of experience at the club, with core players from their miracle season such as Jamie Vardy, Christian Fuchs and Wes Morgan still everpresent — on and off the pitch — and topped up by genuine Premier League talent such as Youri Tielemans, James Maddison and Denis Praet. The return of key players like Caglar Soyuncu, Wilfred Ndidi and Ricardo Pereira will further bolster their first XI and likely make for a squad of genuine title contenders.

^{Source: Twitter @bet365}

Chelsea

Chelsea were the last side to win the Premier League before the Pep and Klopp period of dominance, in 2016/2017 under the astute management of Antonio Conte. A side characterised by typically Italian defensive stability in the form of a back 3, and a deadly trio of Eden Hazard, Diego Costa and Pedro up-top.

This season’s Chelsea — under Frank Lampard — pose a somewhat different threat to the title winning side. Defensive stability is not something that came as naturally as under Conte, but a star-studded front unit topped off with some top quality academy products is proving a nightmare for Premier League defences.

Chelsea spent last season under a transfer ban, giving Lampard no choice but to work with what he had. And what he had was an array of exciting products of the youth academy: The likes of Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount — who had previously been too far down the pecking order and loaned out to Championship clubs — were given regular top-tier game time in a predominantly attacking system that suited them to a T.

The recent summer transfer window gave Lampard and Chelsea the opportunity to take their squad to the next level; and they took it, spending over £200 million on the likes of Timo Werner, Hakim Ziyech, Kai Havertz and Ben Chilwell.

Last minute arrivals in the defensive unit of Edouard Mendy and Thiago Silva have solidified Chelsea’s back line — albeit after some uncomfortable starts — and given Lampard the balance he lacked last season. This is a squad now that resembles title challengers.

Lampard’s exciting attacking side have scored the most goals this season: 20 from an xG of 12.7. It’s no surprise given the money spent — and subsequent personnel — is the highest in the Premier League this season. The Blues are also averaging 12.87 shots per 90, with a shots on target percentage of 42.7% — meaning they are averaging 5.50 shots on target per game.

What will please Lampard and the Chelsea hierarchy the most, is the impact of their new signings. Chelsea struggled to find their form early on as several of their new stars found their feet in a new team, new league, new country and surrounded by new team mates. But recent weeks have seen Werner and Abraham in the goals, and Ziyech’s introduction — following his knee injury before the start of the season — has been a revelation.

The Moroccan has only played 191 minutes in the Premier League and has already racked up a goal and 3 assists — thats 0.47 goals and 1.41 assists per 90. Now these numbers obviously aren’t sustainable throughout, and more games will bring about a more accurate average, but even expected assists per 90 (xA/90) — a metric that can more reliably be extrapolated throughout the course of the season — sits at 0.76.

^{Source: Twitter @Squawka}

The most remarkable recent improvement, however, lies within Chelsea’s recent defensive stability. With the introduction of Mendy, and ever increasing experience of Thiago Silva, the Blues back line has become near impenetrable. In their first 5 league games — which included 3–3 draws against West Brom and Southampton — they recorded an average xGA per game of 1.46. In the 3 games that followed against Manchester United, Burnley and Sheffield United, xGA per game averaged out at just 0.57 — it’s worth nothing that they also got clean sheets in the Champions League games inbetween against Krasnodar and Rennes, with xGA of 0.6 and 0.4 respectively.

The strike power going forward was never going to be a real issue for Lampard. After the stars settled, the goals were always going to follow. But the focus, and subsequent improvement in the defensive unit will be what defines Chelsea’s season. If they can keep it tight at the back, they will be in the run for the title big time.

Tottenham Hotspur

Jose Mourinho is no stranger to a title challenge. He is also no stranger to being the underdog — the dark horse. In 2004 he won the Champions League with Porto. And in 2009/2010 he won Serie A, the Coppa Italia, and astonishingly, the Champions league with Inter Milan, after beating Louis Van Gaal’s Bayern Munich in the final at the Bernabeu.

The Portuguese coach has also won 3 Premier League titles — which he is all to eager to remind everyone of — the FA Cup, the League Cup, La Liga, the Coppa Del Ray, the UEFA Cup, the Europa League, two Primera Liga titles, and another Serie A title. Mourinho is a serial winner.

Spurs currently sit in 2nd place with 5 wins and 17 points from their opening 8 games. They are unbeaten in the league since their opening day defeat at the hands of Everton, and have scored the second most goals in the league (19) behind Chelsea. Mourinho’s men — much like Leicester and Chelsea — are also outperforming their xG, with the aforementioned 19 goals from an xG of 15.0.

What’s promising for Spurs fans is the metric of expected goals difference (xGD) which is essentially the difference between their expected goals and expected goals against. Spurs sit second only to Liverpool with an xGD of +6.2. In Layman’s terms: they are expected to score a load, and not concede many, which is every team’s goal of course.

^{Source: Twitter @InfogolApp}

Mourinho has come in and done exactly what Mourinho does: focuses heavily on defensive organisation, brings in stability in the transfer window, and adds an edge to a team. Spurs yearned for a coach that could bring this edge. They were the nice guys, the bottlers, they always folded — ‘did a spurs’.

And a ‘Spurs’ is exactly what they did against West Ham: 3–0 up in 16 minutes, then 3–3 at full-time after goals in the 82nd, 85th, and memorably the 94th minute. The ultimate Spurs up. However, since that capitulation, Spurs have done something very un-Spurs: They dug in and dragged out 3 very organised, very underwhelming, but very promising wins — wins that champions earn.

^{Source: Twitter @BBCSport}

The summer introduction of two full-backs — Matt Doherty and Sergio Reguilon — into the back line has proven pivotal in Spurs’ upturn in form. Two complete full-backs, equally as competent in attack and defence, and marked improvements of last season’s pairing of Serge Aurier and Ben Davies. It was Doherty who provided the cross for Kane’s late winner against West Brom.

Spurs’ most significant improvement, however, comes in the form of Danish centre-mid Pierre Hojbjerg, signed from Southampton for just £15 million. The midfield general typifies Mourinho’s playing style — aggressive, reliable and consistent.

The Dane is top at Tottenham for successful passes (659), progressive passing distance (2939 yards), passes into the final third (63), progressive carrying distance (1026 yards) and third only to Kane and Son in shot creating actions (19). Defensively, Hojbjerg sits top of successful tackles (28), successful pressures (46), successful tackle percentage (51.9%), and interceptions (4). Everything runs through Hojbjerg.

Up-top Spurs are as potent as ever. Kane and Son are both in incredible form and together are forming one of the great Premier League partnerships, with 15 goals and 10 assists between them — most of which are to each other. They are now up with the likes of Lampard & Drogba, Henry & Pires and Shearer and Sutton, and are on course to become the most productive duo in Premier League history… by some way.

^{Source: Twitter @jag1e}

I honestly think Spurs have as good a chance as anyone this season. Defensively, they are solid, organised and resolute. Their ground out wins after the West Ham capitulation show a resilience we’ve never seen before. Under Mourinho, Spurs are a different animal. They are turning into Mourinho players: steely, hardened winners. Up-top, you could argue Spurs have the current best attacking threat in the league in Kane and Son. And if that starts to falter? Just the small matter of Gareth Bale to help them out…

Honestly? This could be the year we see the City and Liverpool dominance fail — even if just for one season. Watching the quality of those two in seasons past, as they pulled further and further away from the chasing pack, was breathtaking. But the beauty of the Premier League lies in the challengers. The most memorable run-ins are the ones with 3 or 4 teams chasing, the ones that are decided on the final day, that’s the drama we all want. And I think this year, we might just get it.

Kyle Newbould

Read more from Kyle - https://kylenewbould.medium.com/

[23 Year Old Kyle Newbould is one of the best up and coming football journalists and we’ve managed to snap him up before any of the big tabloids do! This will not affect the TIPS in any way, shape, or form. Simply an excellent addition for us all, giving us that extra insight on the elite leagues when I’m sometimes caught up in Lower Leagues around the world!]